San Juan County
Flood Watch issued October 29 at 11:16AM MST until November 2 at 5:00AM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall over saturated soils and waterways that flooded as recently as last week. * WHERE...Coconino County, Navajo County, and Apache County. This includes Navajo Nation. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Flash flooding will be possible in creeks, normally dry washes, swimming holes, and over recently burned areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Another round of rain and thunderstorms is expected Saturday night through the early morning hours of Monday. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible over higher elevations, with up to an inch at lower elevations. This rain will fall on top of already saturated soils, increasing the threat of flooding. - Additional information is available at weather.gov/flagstaff.
Hydrologic Outlook issued October 29 at 2:39PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM
ESFABQ * IMPACTS...River, creek, washes and arroyos may reach out of banks. Rock, mud and debris may flow into roadways and flash flooding can not be ruled out, especially in urban areas. * CONFIDENCE...High confidence in widespread rainfall, with low confidence in river and flash flooding. * WHAT...A strong Pacific storm system will interact with a atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region, producing widespread rain which will focus in the mountains. * WHERE...Four Corners and surrounding region, including Aztec, Bloomfield, Farmington and Shiprock. * WHEN...Sunday into Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...River basins are already saturated from last week's rainfall and flooding, making additional runoff more efficient and can more easily cause flooding problems. The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, which will create high flows in the Animas and La Plata Rivers. These rivers feed the San Juan River, which saw record flooding last week. Continue to monitor forecasts for the updates as this situation unfolds. Follow NWS Albuquerque on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSAlbuquerque and on X at: www.x.com/NWSAlbuquerque
Hydrologic Outlook issued October 29 at 10:53AM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO
ESFGJT Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday, tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect, initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend's historic rainfall. Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000 feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes, slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2 inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO. This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.
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