Carson National Forest

Flood Warning issued October 28 at 11:45AM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM

October 28th, 11:45 AM — 12:00 PM

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New Mexico... Rio Chama Below Chamita affecting Rio Arriba County. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Rio Chama below Chamita. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Properties in the flood plain along the Rio Chama and near the junction of the Rio Ojo Caliente will see water in their yards. Impacts can include bank erosion and damage to wells and septic tanks. These impacts will increase in severity at higher river levels. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM MDT Wednesday the stage was 6.6 feet. - Bankfull stage is 5.5 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 11:00 AM MDT Wednesday was 6.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to remain between 6.4 and 6.7 feet through the next several days. - Flood stage is 6.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 6.7 feet on 07/21/2009. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/abq/EmergencyPrepFlood

Flood Advisory issued October 28 at 11:51AM MDT until October 30 at 12:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM

October 28th, 11:51 AM — 12:00 PM

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in New Mexico... Rio Grande at Embudo affecting Rio Arriba and Taos Counties. * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues. * WHERE...Rio Grande at Embudo. * WHEN...Until Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Minor overbank flows are occurring above the Embudo gaging site. Access to riverside picnic facilities above Pilar and below the Taos Junction Bridge along State Route 570 will be limited if further rises occur. Water may be extremely close to underside of bridge over Rio Grande on Aguas Caliente Rd in Pilar. Other localized effects due to the high water levels will begin to be felt at a stage of 10 feet but no significant flooding is expected until the river rises to 12 feet. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM MDT Wednesday the stage was 7.6 feet. - Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.1 feet tomorrow morning. - Action stage is 8.0 feet. - Flood stage is 10.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Hydrologic Outlook issued October 28 at 2:42PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO

October 28th, 2:42 PM — 3:00 PM

ESFGJT Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday, tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect, initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend's historic rainfall. Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000 feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes, slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2 inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO. This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Overview

Carson National Forest encompasses 1.5 million acres of Northern New Mexico spanning the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, San Juan Mountains, and San Juan Basin, with elevations ranging from 6,500 to over 13,000 feet (including Wheeler Peak, New Mexico's highest point). The forest is currently open with LOW fire danger across all zones. Current alerts include: Forest Road 17 closed for maintenance; active timber harvesting operations on Camino Real Ranger District (FR 476, 115A, 115B); pile burning operations ongoing through winter depending on conditions; bridge collapse on West Fork Santa Barbara Trail (#25) 2.3 miles from trailhead; beaver dam flooding on Placer Fork Trail (#72); Capulin Trail (#494) and FR 10AA temporarily closed to motorized vehicles; and ongoing trail maintenance addressing blowdown from 2021 windstorm. Christmas tree and firewood permits are available online. The forest provides diverse recreation opportunities including hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, and mountain biking across sagebrush to alpine tundra ecosystems.

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